| By Richard Ahern - An ruɗe da duk zaɓe daban-daban? Mun zazzage shara domin bankado danyen bayanan wanda zai lashe zaben 2024 idan aka gudanar da shi a yau.
Wani sabon zabe yana fitowa a kowace rana, sau da yawa ya saba wa wanda ke gabansa, kuma kafafen yada labarai na da dabi'ar zabar wadanda suka dace da ajandarsu.
Mun yi watsi da binciken son zuciya da ƙungiyoyin siyasa suka yi, mun zubar da zaɓen da ke amfani da samfurin jama'a marasa wakilci, kuma mun yi amfani da bayanai kawai daga masu jefa kuri'a sun tantance "B" da sama.
Ga abin da muka samo:
A bangaren jam'iyyar Democrat, da alama Joe Biden zai sake tsayawa takara a karo na biyu duk da cewa ya haura shekaru 80 kuma yana nuna alamun. tabin hankali. Sauran ƴan takarar Demokraɗiyya ba a basu la'akari da yawa ba a yawancin binciken, wanda ya bar mataimakin shugaban ƙasa Kamala Harris a matsayin hanya ɗaya tilo.
Sauran 'yan takarar Democrat kamar Hilary Clinton da Bernie Sanders sun yi zabe mara kyau lokacin da aka fafata da Biden ko Harris. Misali, na manya 891 da aka yi tambaya, Harris ya samu maki 11 sama da Clinton, amma kuri'ar daban ta biden ya rushe Harris 41% -12%.
Samar da za su iya sa Shugaba Biden ya kasance a farke kuma a tsaye, shi ne mafi kyawun damar da 'yan Democrat ke da shi wajen ci gaba da shugabancin.
A bangaren jam’iyyar Republican, abin ya fi armashi ganin yadda ‘yan takara da dama suka jefa huluna a cikin zobe. Koyaya, a zahiri tseren mutum biyu ne tsakanin tsohon shugaban kasa, Donald Trump, da gwamnan Florida na yanzu Ron DeSantis.
Ron DeSantis dai ya tabbatar da aniyarsa ta tsayawa takara ta hanyar kaddamar da yakin neman zabensa tare da wata hira da Elon Musk da aka buga a shafin Twitter. Abin takaici, al'amuran fasaha sun addabi taron, tare da yin watsi da sauti da haɗin kai sau da yawa. Tun da taron, DeSantis yanzu mafi rashin alheri (41.1%) fiye da m (41%).
A bara DeSantis yana jefa kuri'a cikin nasara - wasu kuri'un sun nuna ya fi Donald Trump shahara.
Wannan tunanin ya koma baya da sauri:
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Zaben fidda gwani na jam'iyyar Republican
Trump vs DeSantis 2024 zabe
Mafi yawan kuri'un da aka kada na baya-bayan nan sun nuna hakan trump shi ne dan takarar jam'iyyar Republican, tare da DeSantis ya rasa tururi kafin a fara yakin neman zabe. Zaben kasa a yanzu ya nuna babban gibi a tsakanin Trump da DeSantis, tare da Trump ya ci sama da 50% kuma DeSantis ya nutse zuwa kusan 20%.
Don bacin rai ga 'yan Democrat, hare-haren doka na baya-bayan nan akan Donald Trump ya karfafa goyon bayan jama'a ne kawai. A tunanin masu jefa kuri'a, mai yiyuwa ne shari'ar kotu ta sake tabbatar da imaninsu cewa Trump ne wanda aka kashe a farautar mayu.
Ƙimar amincewar Trump ta ƙara haɓaka bayan ya mamaye a Gidan gidan CNN, inda ya bayyana a cikin babban tsari - babban bambanci da shugaban na yanzu. Bikin na tsawon sa'o'i da aka nuna a gidan talabijin ya nuna cewa har yanzu tsohon shugaban na da farin jini a wurin masu jefa kuri'a na jam'iyyar Republican, inda jama'a suka rika murna da raha.
A gefe guda kuma, farin jinin gwamnan Florida Ron DeSantis da 'yan jam'iyyar Republican ya ragu akai-akai, tare da rahotanni game da karancin kuzarinsa da rashin mutuntaka da ke mamaye kanun labarai. Masu jefa kuri'a suna jin haka - Trump ya samu kashi 9% mafi girma lokacin da aka tambayi manya wanene ya fi "mai kwarjini," a cewar YouGov.
Duk da haka, DeSantis ya sami goyon bayan mutum na biyu mafi arziki a duniya, Elon Musk. Kodayake Musk bai amince da shi a hukumance ba, ya yi nuni da hakan.
Rahotanni sun kuma nuna cewa DeSantis ya tara makudan kudade na yakin neman zabe na kusan dala miliyan 100, kuma tare da shugaban Twitter Elon Musk a bangarensa, asusun na iya bunkasa cikin sauri.
Daga ƙarshe, masu jefa ƙuri'a suna riƙe da iko, kuma idan aka kwatanta kai tsaye da Trump, DeSantis ya bayyana a matsayin mai hasara.
Kuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'a na baya-bayan nan daga Masanin Tattalin Arziki ya nuna cewa Trump ya mamaye DeSantis da kashi 32 na zaben fidda gwani na Republican. Hakazalika, kuri'ar jin ra'ayin jama'a na kwanan nan daga masu ba da shawara na Morning Consult sun nuna Trump yana jagorantar DeSantis da kashi 38%.
A karshen shekarar da ta gabata, sakamakon ya kasance mai tsauri sosai, inda wasu rumfunan zabe suka nuna DeSantis ne ke kan gaba. Misali, kuri’ar jin ra’ayin jama’a da jami’ar Suffolk ta gudanar ya nuna cewa DeSantis ne ke jagorantar Trump da kashi 23%, kuma The Economist da YouGov sun sa shi ya jagoranci tsohon shugaban da kashi 8%.
Amma wannan ba shine gaba ɗayan labarin ba:
Zaben shugaban kasa na 2024
Wadancan kuri'un sun nuna kawai wanda zai lashe zaben fidda gwani na Republican - menene game da ainihin zaben shugaban kasa? Da zaton cewa Joe Biden yana gudana, DeSantis ya bayyana shine wanda ya yi nasara - amma ta ɗan ƙaramin gefe.
Duk da son zuciya na hagu na zaben jami'a, Jami'ar Quinnipiac ta sami DeSantis da kyar ke jagorantar Biden da kashi 1% a babban zaben. Sabanin haka, wannan binciken ya kasance Biden ya jagoranci Trump da kashi 2% idan aka gudanar da zaben a yau, a cewar masu kada kuri'a.
Gabaɗaya, babban zaɓen ya nuna a fili cewa Amurka ta rabu 50-50 - lambobin sun yi kusa sosai. YouGov yana da Biden vs. DeSantis daidai ko da amma ya sanya Trump a 2% a gaban shugaban na yanzu.
Joe Biden zai cika shekara 82 a shekara ta 2024, duk da haka a cewar masu jefa kuri'a, shi ne mafi kyawun damar da 'yan jam'iyyar Democrat ke da shi na samun wani wa'adi na biyu. Abin ban mamaki kuri'a mai suna Harris Poll ya nuna Trump ya mamaye Kamala Harris a babban zaben da kashi 11 cikin dari.
Idan mataimakiyar shugaban kasa, Kamala Harris, ta tsaya takara, a cewar masu kada kuri'a da suka yi rijista, tana da kyakykyawan ra'ayi da Ron DeSantis, galibin kuri'u har da gwamnan Florida.
Abokin hamayya daya tilo Harris ya doke a binciken shine tsohon gwamnan South Carolina, Republican Nikki Haley - duk da haka Haley ta ci gaba da kada kuri'a kasa da kashi 10% a zaben fidda gwani na Republican.
Ga layin ƙasa:
Bayanan sun yi nuni da sake fafatawa a shekarar 2024 tsakanin Biden da Trump, amma a halin yanzu, Amurka ta rabu a tsakiya. Lambobin suna kusa da ba zai yiwu a kira mai nasara ba a wannan lokacin. Wataƙila wannan ra'ayin zai tsaya tsayin daka har zuwa ranar zaɓe - ma'ana cewa kowace ƙuri'a tana ƙidaya!
Muna bukatar taimakon ku! Mun kawo muku labaran da ba a tantance ba FREE, amma za mu iya yin wannan kawai godiya ga goyon bayan masu karatu masu aminci kamar haka KA! Idan kun yi imani da 'yancin magana kuma kuna jin daɗin labarai na gaske, da fatan za a yi la'akari da tallafawa aikin mu ta zama majiɓinci ko ta hanyar yin a gudummawar lokaci ɗaya a nan. 20% na ALL ana bayar da kudade ga tsoffin sojoji!
Wannan labarin yana yiwuwa ne kawai godiya ga mu masu tallafawa da majiɓinta!
Shiga tattaunawar!